The Countdown To The Very Essential 2024 U.S. Election Part 2 (Post Election Analysis & Results)
Only one week after we witnessed, what many in the media claim to be a shocking election result, the American people have once again chosen Donald Trump to govern for the next four years. We had two very distinct visions for the future of not only the United States but the world. Both candidates did everything they possibly could to convince voters that they were the right choice for commander-in chief. There were many pros and cons that people saw in both of the candidates but in the end the voters demanded change. The people preferred to vote for a candidate that had faced multiple charges, and 2 assassination attempts, than to continue on a path of having a globalist puppet in charge. People were very disappointed with the way the country had performed under the Democrats over the last 4 years and needed to revert back to the good times they enjoyed under Trump’s presidency. Despite most of the polls pointing to a tight race, in the end this ended up being anything but the case. So called distinguished professor of history at American University Allan J. Lichtman predicted a Harris victory, and this time round ended up being very wrong.
In (Part 1) of the article “The Countdown To The Very Essential 2024 U.S. Election”, it outlined the theory of the thirteen key historical prediction system. Professor Allan J. Lichtman wrote about this in his book “The Keys To The White House”, and based this system on being able to calculate the winner of every election from 1860 to 1980. He had since used these thirteen keys to correctly predict the winner of every election from 1984 to 2020. As we have seen by these election results however, Lichtman got it very wrong. In the previous article, it detailed how Lichtman has misinterpreted his own keys. This was where he said that the short and long term prospects of the U.S. economy was doing well, that there had been no scandals, no military failures, no social unrest, and that Trump was somehow not charismatic. If he had chosen to interpret the keys correctly, he would have picked up on Trump winning, but he preferred to have a strategy of hope rather than facts. The media likewise wanted to listen to the biased polls that looked favourable to them, rather than focus on what was happening on the ground. Trump had always under performed by several points, which should have given them an indication as to where the electorate was, throughout the campaign.
It is very likely that the media knew exactly how poorly the Democrats were doing, that they thought that putting out the notion that they were winning, would somehow motivate their supporters, and at the same time discourage Republicans from voting. In modern times, polls have not been used for a righteous purpose, but instead conducted in order to push a narrative. This showed how out of touch the mainstream media was, due to under-estimating the discontent that the American people had with their current politicians and the policy direction of the country. Instead of seeking the views of hard working families and rural voters, the elite continued to focus on the inner city social justice warriors that form a loud but minority voice. These people seem to be most concerned about abortion, climate change, political correctness, and a gender neutral society that advocates for men playing in women’s sports. As soon as politicians ponder to minority groups and focus on nonsense fringe issues, the majority of hard working Americans will notice and will react negatively as these issues don’t affect them
Many people had predicted that the sky would fall if Trump was re-elected, however there was a strong rise in the stock market after he was announced to have won the election. His plan to lower taxes and slash red tape would give businesses a boost in their profits, which will also encourage more investors to the market. Goldman Sachs estimated that the largest U.S. businesses could see a 4% jump in their earnings if corporate tax rates were cut. Last month in Chicago, Trump had said “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff”. There could be a 10% tariff placed on most countries, with up to 20% in Mexico, and 60% in China. This will encourage people to buy products from the USA, and encourage businesses to operate in the USA, which in turn will result in more jobs for the national population. The USA debt levels have continued to sky rocket, and urgent action is required to get this under control. Cutting red and green tape, as well as cutting waste in the public sector, will help to pay it off.
Donald Trump delivered his victory speech to the crowd gathered at the Palm Beach County Convention Center at 2:30 am Wednesday morning. He delivered a speech that was very presidential and humble as he said, “I will fight for you, for your family and your future, every single day I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body, I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America, that’s what we have to have”. He was also very humble when he said, “They said that many people have told me that God spared my life for a reason. And that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness. And now we are going to fulfill that mission together”. Trump also indicated how he shifted demographics and built up a coalition that believed in his unifying vision for the country. Donald Trump has made one of the biggest ever comebacks in political history. The new record of 17 million votes that he achieved during the Republican Primaries, the tens of thousands that would come see him at his rallies, and his crushing landslide victory against Kamala Harris is proof of that. If given the opportunity by his Republican colleagues, he will be able to carry out his mandate that will change America and quite possibly turn him into a conservative hero like the great Ronald Reagan.
Kamala Harris decided to not address her supporters on election night, but instead came out 14 hours later to an audience at Washington DC. Her concession speech was fairly generic and had the usual word salad responses. Lines such as, “only when it is dark enough can you see the stars. I know many people feel like we are entering a dark time, but for the benefit of us all, I hope that is not the case. But here’s the thing, America, if it is, let us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant, brilliant billion of stars”. There were definitely no indicators which showed they believed they ran a poor campaign and held the wrong policy positions, but rather that they did not do a good enough job in convincing people that their positions were right. Even in defeat the Democrats haven’t understood that Americans are sick of far left radical ideology, and would rather choose the commonsense option that Trump was offering.
On election night social media really showed each sides sentiment, as you had conservatives posting up a positive message mixed with a sigh of relief vs the left wing social justice warriors having panic attacks and violent outbursts. For the true believers the polls were always going to be incorrect, as they knew that the feeling on the ground was the true poll indicator as to the feeling of the country. According to many, Donald Trump’s support amongst minority groups was supposed to be dismal. Trump ended up increasing his vote amongst black men to 20%, asians to 38%, latinos to 45% which is a 16% increase from 2020, white women to 52%, and gen z voters to 42%. He also not only did well amongst rural voters but increased his vote substantially in the cities and suburbs. Trump is the first candidate to win over as many non whites since Nixon in 1960. Trump was not only able to take all the traditional red states, but was successful at winning most swing states and reduced the margin in most of the blue states. In (Part 1) of this article I posted a map which predicted how states may vote on Election Day. The map I have attached on this article (Part 2) is the final results, and as you can see my original prediction was fairly accurate with only a few minor errors which was to be expected. Trump has turned the Electoral College right around with these results.
The 32 safe states that I identified on the map all went the way I had predicted. For the Republican Party these are: (Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah) in the far west, (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio) in the mid-west, (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia) in the south. The states that are dark blue are considered safe for the Democrats: (Hawaii, California, Washington) in the far west, (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, Maryland, Maine) in the north east, and Washington D.C. This left only 18 states remaining, 7 which I thought would likely go a certain way, 7 which were classed as the battleground states, and 4 which were possibly within reach of being flipped if Trump over performed.
The states that originally had a lighter shade of red, I believed the Republicans were likely to win but weren’t completely safe. These were both Florida and Texas, and boy did Trump turn these 2 states into deep red territory. Only 20 years ago Florida was considered a battleground state but Trump this time round won the state by over 13%. No doubt the conservative latino population of the state definitely helped, and Ron De Santis had been doing extremely well as governor for many years now. Texas was once touted by the Democrats as a possible future gain for them, but the Republicans won this state by 14%. This state was only a 6% margin back in 2020. Ted Cruz won his Senate seat very comfortably. The problems with the border was definitely a defining factor for Texans. Trump won most counties apart from the 4 major cities and a couple on the edge of the state. This definitely helped Trump in adding to his overall vote share. Of the states that were a lighter shade of blue there was also a huge shift to the right. Colorado was the only exception to the rule here, and although there were slight shifts in many of the counties, Kamala won the state by 11%. The reason for this is due to the population shift that has seen many liberals from California move to the state. Oregon was another state that showed a little shift to the right, but in the end had Kamala winning by 14%. The next 3 states however saw a massive shift in support to Trump. Illinois was always seen as a fairly safe Democrat state, yet in 2024 Trump only lost the state by 8%. Trump’s home state of New York saw Trump win many counties, and increase his vote even by as much as 20% in the suburbs and city. Trump only lost the state by 11%, a state that normally the Democrats won by 24%. In New Jersey, Trump was able to reduce the margin to only 5%, basically classifying it as a future swing state. Trump strategically targeted safe blue states and did massive rallies there so he could broaden his appeal, win house races, and win the popular vote.
Trump was able to win a quick sweep of all the battleground states, something that I had predicted he would achieve at the very least. In the sunbelt states, we saw a decent margin. In Arizona, Trump won the state by 6%, almost certainly ruling it out as a swing state in 2028. In Nevada, Trump had a comfortable victory of 3%, a state where he won every county, but two, where he only narrowly lost. Trump won over 3% in North Carolina, and 2% in Georgia. In the 3 rust belt states the margins were much smaller, although the Republicans were also able to secure a senate seat in Pennsylvania. Trump won the state of Pennsylvania by 2%, which was a healthy margin, but only won Michigan by 1.5%, and Wisconsin by about 1%. This was, considering the circumstances, an impressive victory, and the Republicans now have the opportunity to build their margins for the mid terms and the presidential race in 2028. There is no doubt that Trump’s connection with the working class, definitely helped him get over the line.
The next 4 states were toss ups, and I had predicted that Trump’s best case scenario would have him winning them all, and worst case scenario have him losing them all. Although he lost these next 4 states, there is no doubt that the Republicans will be able to target them next time round, and make them future swing states. Trump lost New Mexico by just under 6%, Virginia by around 5%, New Hampshire by under 3%, and Minnesota by 4%. All of these states, along with New Jersey, are up for grabs by the GOP, but they need to ensure that they spend a lot of money and time campaigning in them. Many Republicans did very minimal in this election but still received a decent vote considering, so next time round they will have to focus their efforts on these states, so they can secure greater paths to victory.
Originally I had predicted a best case scenario Trump victory in the electoral college to be in the 340’s, and if he had not won the 4 states mentioned above, to secure 312 electoral college votes, which is what he ended up receiving. Donald Trump also secured the popular vote, which was something that no Republican had been able to do since George W Bush in 2004. He has also secured the highest amount of votes of any other Republican candidate in history, so far getting 75 million, and projected to receive around 78 million. To top it off the Republicans were also able to get a majority in both the House and the Senate. This victory, unlike his last term, would be able to give Trump a mandate to enforce his agenda without any hostilities, given that GOP policy cannot be blocked anymore with their control of the House and Senate. Donald Trump has already appointed several loyalists to key positions and has largely avoided including neocons like Haley and Pompeo to his cabinet. This time round Trump is more wiser and will not take people at their word, as he had been betrayed many times throughout his 1st term.
If Kamala Harris had gotten into power we would be in a very different situation. World War 3 would most likely be on the horizon, with the Democrats very keen to continue the Russia/Ukraine and Middle Eastern Wars. The amount of billions of dollars in funding they have supplied to overseas conflicts is a disgrace, and could have better been spent on improving the lives of Americans doing it tough. The nation would not have been taken seriously, and they would have kept embarrassing themselves on the national stage. The green new scam would be in full force, and more and more money would be wasted on such an agenda, that would result in Americans paying more for electricity and other goods. Inflation would not have been reduced, and the price of groceries and fuel would not have come down. Immigration would continue to get out of control, and we would see many more criminals come over the border and commit crimes against citizens. Woke politics would continue, with transgender ideology and other marxist beliefs being forced onto the public and throughout institutions. Free speech would have continued to be eroded, something that we see elites actively trying to attack constantly, and digital id would have just been around the corner. Ongoing scandals and corruption would become the norm which would have undermined her leadership. Americans sent a clear message to the establishment, that is that they are sick and tired of not being heard while they are struggling to survive paycheck to paycheck. When the working class and minority groups moved the way that it did, it proved that it was no longer taken for granted, as the people saw the threats and needed the right solutions that would protect their rights, jobs and family.
Professor Allan J. Lichtman’s thirteen keys theory has now been all but demolished, along with his credibility. Recently he has come out and admitted getting it wrong, but has chosen to make excuses and say that the reason why Kamala had lost is because the American people are racist and sexist, and due to Elon Musk spreading propaganda on X. He chose to say that the thirteen keys work in a ‘normal’ society and not one as polarised as they have in the USA. He has received a lot of criticism for his predictions and his latest remarks, and there is no doubt that his theory has now been buried, and that people will no longer give him much weight the next time round, if he chose to continue commentating on politics in the future. Donald Trump has been given a huge mandate by the people, because they support a return to a strong economy whereby the American dream is still in reach. They want to feel safe in their neighbourhoods and no longer want millions of illegal immigrants crossing the border. They do not want tampons in boys toilets and gender ideology forced onto children. They want healthy food and water and will embrace RFK Jr’s health agenda, so that their children will not suffer from the health problems they currently do. They no longer want to fight wars and they want to put America first. They saw a President narrowly escape an assassination attempt, when a bullet braised his ear at a rally in Butler Pennsylvania. He got up and clenched his fist in the air, yelling out “fight fight fight”. Many of the left have shown their communist colours because they haven’t accepted the result of a democratic election due to the fact that they lost. Harris chased these minority voters while she left the working and middle class Americans high and dry. Worldwide the left have been leaving their traditional base to instead side with these Marxist radicals. The results of this action has proven that class no longer plays a part in party politics. If Donald Trump is to stay true to his principles, and ignores these loud minority groups, the mainstream media, and establishment that will continue to attack him, he can potentially be the next Lincoln and Reagan. With all of the problems at hand, the people need a leader that will rise up to the task and tackle the economic, social, and national problems the nation faces. In order to succeed Trump needs to ensure that he is able to “Make America Safe Again”, “Make America Healthy Again”, “Make America Work Again”, “Make America Strong Again”, and overall “Make America Great Again.”
Damien Ferri
Senior Editor @ The Unshackled
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