The Countdown To The Very Essential 2024 U.S. Election Part 1 (Pre Election Analysis and Predictions)
With only days to go until we finally witness who the American people have chosen to govern for the next four years, we have two very distinct visions for the future of not only the United States but the world. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have put their case forward on why they should be elected president, and it is now time that the people decide on their fate, and that of the nation. The 2024 race for the White House has many similarities to what was on offer back in 2016 and 2020. We have seen two presidential candidates that have been polar opposites in regards to their style, policy direction, and vision. We once again continue to have a match up between a straight talking non-conventional leader vs someone that has represented the corporate establishment all her life. Kamala Harris, due to a staged coup within the Democratic Party, ascended as the default candidate after it was decided that the party would not have an open convention but instead allow the donors to dictate who the leader should be. Despite the polls now having Trump in the lead, distinguished professor of history at American University Allan J. Lichtman predicts that 2024 will be a Harris victory.
The author of “The Keys To The White House” bases his theory on a thirteen key historical prediction system that has been used to calculate the winner of every election from 1860 to 1980. He has since used these thirteen keys to correctly predict the winner of the elections from 1984 to 2020. Lichtman states that “the keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House.” The keys look at things such as the economic performance of the country, whether there has been success or failure in foreign affairs, the charisma of the incumbent and challenger, the performance of the incumbent and the challenger in the primaries, the party mandate and policy direction, scandals and social unrest, and the potential impact of a third party candidate. Lichtman suggests that if six or more of these keys are proven false and to be a negative for the incumbent party, they will lose the election.
Currently he places Harris as having four of the thirteen keys proven false, but six more of these keys are definitely debatable. Firstly he cites both short term and long term positive economic impacts to the country, which given the amount of debt the country is currently in, as well as the inflation and cost of living crisis people are facing, makes it very inaccurate. Whilst Trump was in office everything was cheaper, be it grocery prices, fuel, and housing. He was well on his way to paying off the debt, although covid-19 unfortunately slowed down this process. On the Joe Rogan podcast he was asked about this very topic, and he mentioned that he was well on his way in paying the debt off but when covid came he had to reallocate a lot of the money to struggling businesses, in an effort to keep them afloat. The cost of housing has risen substantially making the American Dream impossible for many Americans. Whether it be the now 35 trillion dollars of debt that the country has been burdened with or the day to day costs that are crippling America, there is no doubt that the economy has had both short term and long term downturns, indicating that these two keys should be false.
There are 4 more keys that should definitely be proven false. One of these is that it is Lichtman’s belief that there has been no social unrest. This cannot be true, as for the past year we have had major social unrest throughout the west, with regards to pro-palestinian protests. This has been devastating for the Democratic Party, as many voters have refused to vote for them based on their support for Israel, and instead have opted to either boycott the vote or vote third party. Another key that should be proven false is suggesting that there was no scandal. One of the biggest scandals of our time occurred this election cycle, when the left wing mainstream media and the Democrats tried to hide Joe Biden’s major cognitive issues. It was only when they could no longer defend him via his disastrous debate performance, that they turned on him. Another key that is false is the concept of a major foreign military success. The Biden/Harris administration had an absolute failure in its military withdrawal from Afghanistan, which ended up resulting in a great loss of weapons and a base that the Chinese conveniently took over. The last obvious key that should be false, is the argument that Trump is somehow an uncharismatic challenger. Donald Trump has been one of the most charismatic leaders of our time, and the success that he has had as a business man and celebrity, and the fact that he is a strong orator that has created the biggest political movement in modern time is proof of that. There have been many that have questioned Lichtman’s assertions and have claimed that he has not stuck by his own keys 100%. Nate Silver and youtuber stateofdaniel are just some of the people that have been calling him out on this, something that made Allan Lichtman furious. It is not so much his model of determining election outcomes that is faulty, but more so his opinion of the key issues within the model.
An important factor to look at in predicting exactly what the American people may do come election day, is to look at the stark contrast in policy directions offered by both candidates. Donald Trump has beat the odds and achieved great results despite the mainstream media, hollywood, and corporate powers being against him. Apart from the fact that he had a much stronger economy whilst he was president, he has consistently made it clear that he would be tough on China and put America first. Not only would this occur via protectionist policy which has worked in keeping companies from relocating overseas, but by also boosting manufacturing and keeping Americans employed. Whilst he was president, he chose to scrap unfair trade deals that were hurting the working class and not inflict a costly globalist green new deal. Trump had fulfilled his promise in elevating conservative judges to the supreme court, which ultimately led to the overturn of Roe V Wade, giving the states responsibility when it came to forming abortion laws. His major achievement as president however was his strong stance on law and order. While many far left extremists had burnt cities to the ground, he stood up and did not bow down to any pressure, using the army when necessary to protect citizens. He ensured that he built much of the wall on the southern border, and was able to stop illegal immigrants from crossing. This eventuated in a reduction of crime and made the country a lot safer.
Kamala Harris on the other hand has continually shown how rotten the Democratic Party is. The best the Democratic Party could do was pick a cackling communist that can’t even speak without a teleprompter. This was after they originally had a senile old man that suffers from dementia and who can hardly string a sentence together himself. Kamala’s team originally went with the strategy of hiding her in the basement, which is something that worked out for Joe Biden in 2020. This however was doing nothing for her poll numbers, so they thought they would try getting her some exposure among friendly media, where she could do some soft ball interviews hoping it would increase her appeal. She performed abysmally every time she did an interview, and the American people only got to know her more, and they were not impressed with what they saw. Just like Joe Biden uttering the famous racist line, “if you vote Trump you ain’t black”, Kamala had called one of her key demographics stupid when she was asked about what she thought of young people. She has also had a big backlash amongst black men and latino’s, with the GOP now getting record numbers of them in their camp. She has been very extreme on the abortion issue, and is using it as one of her key campaign messages. She failed as the border czar and had millions of illegal immigrants go across the border, many which ended up committing heinous crimes. Inflation and the cost of living are at all time highs, and they have further ignited several wars by supplying funding and weapons to countries overseas. The amount of baggage the Biden/Harris administration have, as-well as their disastrous policy direction will impact their party in a negative way, paving for a closer than expected result on the electoral college map.
We have all heard in the media about the opinion polls that have Kamala and Trump neck and neck, but how accurate are they? One has to look back at the 1980 election where Reagan was down 6% points only weeks from polling day but then clawed back and won in a surprise landslide. Then we had the 2016 election only 8 years ago that had Donald Trump with little to no chance of winning the White House. Polls are not accurate but rather are created to boost confidence in the person they want to win. It is so it can drive people to support the ‘winner’ and at the same time demoralise the opposition. National polls that have Harris up at this stage of the game are laughable, as such an atmosphere is not being felt on the ground in the electorates. There is no doubt that real polls would indicate a healthy Trump lead, and this is evident as even leftist polls have him slightly ahead of Harris overall. Trump is currently leading in most national polls, and if this is repeated on election day, it will be the first time since 2004 that Republicans won the popular vote. Trump’s vote is always underestimated, as was the case by several % points in both 2016 and 2020. Not only were the national polls in the past way out, but more so in the state to state contests, there had been polling errors of up to 6 or 7% at times, so one can only assume that Trump is in a very healthy position right now.
There are many states on the map that are dark red and are considered safe for the Republicans: (Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah) in the far west, (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio) in the mid-west, (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia) in the south. The states that are dark blue are considered safe for the Democrats: (Hawaii, California, Washington) in the far west, (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, Maryland, Maine) in the north east, and Washington D.C. This is a total of 32 states plus Washington D.C. which are almost certain to vote a certain way unless something takes place in a state that makes it go through a dramatic change. This leaves only 18 states remaining, 7 that are likely to go to a particular party, 7 which are classed as the battleground states, and 4 which are within reach of being flipped.
The states that have a lighter shade of red are likely to be won by the Republicans but by a slightly slimmer margin. The first 2 states that Donald Trump will win with ease are Florida and Texas. Florida has consistently been shifting to the right and is no longer a swing state like it used to be 20 years ago. Florida could garner a 10% victory for Trump. Texas has been moving more to the left, but Trump is projected to win it by about 8%, given his appeal to Latino voters and the crisis on the southern border. The states that have a lighter shade of blue are likely to be won by the Democrats but by a slightly slimmer margin. Oregon has been shifting to the right, and with a very poor early vote turnout for the Democrats, it could shrink to around a 7% Harris victory. Colorado has been shifting to the left, and although Trump was within a few points of winning it in 2016, he is projected to lose the state by somewhere between 7-10%. Illinois has been shifting slightly to the right but is still projected to be around a 10-12% Harris win. New York and New Jersey have been shifting a lot to the right, and given New York is Trump’s home state, and the huge rallies that he had at Madison Square Garden as well as the Bronx, it may very well reduce the margins to around 10-12%, with New Jersey edging much closer. When Biden was still in the race, there were some polls having Trump and Biden neck and neck in New Jersey, and showing New York dipping under 10%. Although Harris will perform slightly better than what was projected with Biden, it is a huge improvement for the GOP.
The states that have a pale shade of red and will lean towards Trump, happen to be all of the 7 battleground states. Trump has a very strong chance at winning Nevada and is currently ahead on the early vote count. It is a state that Hillary Clinton only won by 2.4% back in 2016, and one that judging by current polls show a close race. Although Harris was ahead in the state months ago, there has been a shift that has seen strong support for Donald Trump. He very well could win the state by a couple points. Trump has excelled in Arizona, and the Harris campaign has completely given up on the state. Trump won the state by 4% points in 2016, and is likely to win it with a similar margin this time round. Georgia has trended more towards the Republicans in 2024, and Trump has had polls giving him a 3-5% lead. North Carolina has shifted to the left over the past decade but should still be a comfortable Trump win. Polls project him winning the state by 2-4%. With Trump winning the sunbelt quite easily, it would mean that Harris has to win the entire rust belt in order to win the white house. Trump has gained in Pennsylvania and should win the state by about 2-3%. Biden only just won the state 4 years ago, and polls at the time were projecting a win for him by around 7-10%. Wisconsin and Michigan are said to be neck and neck, although have Trump just slightly ahead. The polls have generally underestimated Trump’s vote in the rust belt, and both states should give Trump around a 2% margin win. Trump has fought hard in these states by staging many rallies, as the main issues that voters face in these states such as fracking, manufacturing, and trade, continue to hurt the Democrats. Trade policies such as the TPP and NAFTA which both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton supported led to the seats changing red in 2016. Steel and mine jobs and an anti China message is resonating here and it is very likely that Trump can win these states. Current betting markets have Trump winning the sun belt states at around 70-75%, and him winning the rust belt states at around 55-65%.
The states that can be described as tilt red, generally vote Democrat but polls show that Trump has a chance of picking them up. The first state is Virginia, a state that has been blue since 2004. This state delivered a Republican victory in 2022 with Glenn Youngkin becoming governor of the state. There have been close polls suggesting that Trump is either tied in the state or within a couple of points in picking it up. Despite its very liberal dominated city, the rest of the state is very red. Another state that Trump could pick up is Minnesota. This state hasn’t voted Republican since 1972, but Trump only lost it by a couple of points to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Although VP nominee Tim Walz is from this state, he is not very popular and has done a lot of damage as governor. Things such as allowing Minneapolis to burn to the ground when the blm protests were rampant, or his extreme views on tampons in boys bathrooms, encouraging gender reassignment surgery for kids, and his socialist economic policies will all harm the Democrats in this state. Another state that Trump has a strong change of winning is New Hampshire. With a close result in 2016 and Trump in a much stronger position this cycle, it is very possible that he could just edge out in this state. The last state that Trump has a chance in is New Mexico. This state has been consistently blue for a number of years now, although many of the border problems as well as Trump’s huge support amongst Latino voters, could help him get over the line. Trump has recently done a rally there, and if the polls that have him a number of points out, once again underestimates him, he could get a really close result.
Trump has been attracting thousands to his rallies as he hammers home the message of tariffs, a strong and open economy, a tough stance on China, support for fracking, steel, and mining, and opposition to the green new deal. He also is attracting people with his tough law and order approach, that aims to stop civil unrest in many of the major cities in these states. The path to victory for Trump almost looks certain as he has secured the sunbelt and only needs a win in Pennsylvania to seal the deal. The path for Harris looks rather slim, and even left wing commentators have noticed that it would be a tough task for her to win the entire rust belt as well as a couple of sunbelt states. The current polling will either have Trump secure a victory similar to what he did in 2016 but with Nevada added to his tally, or at best also pick up some extra states like Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. In the last 2 election cycles my predictions were very close, with a Trump win similar to what he achieved in 2016 having been forcasted, and a draw having been predicted in 2020, which ended up being an election that was decided by only around 80,000 votes. Once again if the data has underestimated Trump by an average of 3-5 points, the scenario that I have outlined in the map, is a reasonable one.
Professor Allan J. Lichtman predicts Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States by using the thirteen keys theory that has enabled him to correctly predict each president since 1980. I think that due to the current climate though, that if there was any year in which the polls and Lichtman’s assessment could be wrong, it is this one. Donald Trump could not have had a better campaign. Some of the highlights being his absolute annihilation of Joe Biden at the leaders debate, which forced Democrats to overthrow him and install a more unlikeable puppet candidate in his place. The rise of Trump’s popularity after his assassination attempt in Butler Pennsylvania, which drew many to him as he showed real courage clenching his fist up in the air and yelling out “fight fight fight”. Whenever there is an attempt on someone’s life, their popularity skyrockets, as people tend to think that there must be something good and genuine about a person if someone is willing to try and take them down. The multiple charges against him that had his opponents class him as a ‘felon’ only made him more relatable to every day voters. His photo opportunities capturing him dealing with customers whilst working at McDonalds, or driving in the garbage truck as he used Joe Biden’s words against his supporters to his own advantage. His multiple interviews that he did with youtube podcasters that garnered a strong following amongst young people, and the many huge rallies and town hall sit downs he did throughout the campaign, showed how hard he can work, as he spreads his message to great lengths.
Although the mainstream media like to paint Donald Trump as an extremist, this is not the mood of most American people. Donald Trump has made inroads with Hispanic voters, where he now has over 50% supporting him. He has also made inroads with black men, and could fetch as many as 20-25% of them on election day. Issues that have concerned them such as the Democrats rhetoric against gun rights, the cost of living crisis that has seen them lose a lot of money over the past 4 years, and illegal immigrants that have taken many of their jobs, have all led them to move to Trump. Many have also rejected the concept of the DEI candidate in Kamala Harris and don’t even see her as one of them, seeing as she is of Indian and Jamaican heritage rather than African American. Many ex Democrats such as Tulsi Gabbard, Robert Kennedy Jr, and Elon Musk, have joined the Trump campaign as the Democrats continue to show that they no longer are the same party they were 60 years ago. Donald Trump has also connected with working class white voters like no Republican has since Reagan. He has shown that the GOP no longer are the party for corporate interests, but now represent everyday Americans.
Kamala Harris on the other hand entered politics by getting close to old powerful men in San Fransisco like Willie Brown and has never at all achieved anything due to her work ethic and credentials. Not only did she do a terrible job as a prosecutor and politician in California, but she bombed out before the primary even started in 2020 yet still became the Vice President. Not only did she achieve this without a single vote, but she also became the Presidential Nominee without having to go through a primary contest, after they staged a coup against Joe Biden. The Democrats tried to get her in late so that people didn’t have enough time to get to know her, but it seems that even over the past few months, it has given people enough time to work her out, and she has left a sour taste in people’s mouths. She is fake and not genuine, to the extremes that she has to put on fake accents in different settings, and can not speak without a teleprompter. A true robotic puppet candidate that gives word salad responses to questions, such as “I came from a middle class family”, “we need to turn the page”, and “I believe in aspirations, dreams, and work ethic”. The only thing that she seems to talk about is abortion rights, and continues to call Trump “hitler” and “dictator”, despite actively working to shut down free speech or what they call ‘misinformation’. The more and more that people had seen her doing interviews, the more they started to dislike her and what she represented. She was the most unpopular Vice President in history, up until she became the nominee and all of a sudden the media made her into a superstar. It is so evident how much bias there is in the media by looking at the way both Trump and Harris were treated much differently during the ABC leaders debate. You can also see the softball interviews that she consistently gets, with the one exception being the interview she did with Brett Baier on Fox News.
In my 2020 article I predicted that Joe Biden would not last his whole term, and that the torch would be handed over to Kamala Harris, someone that was deeply unpopular. It is my belief that Joe Biden endorsed Kamala on purpose so that she could be given the leadership, as he wanted to witness the sinking ship that took him down. Many even say that Biden’s ‘garbage’ comment was orchestrated by him, so that it could derail her campaign late in the game. Trump is right when he talks about how angry Joe Biden is about his removal from the top job, and who wouldn’t be? She is a fake neo-liberal hollywood shill of the worst kind, and despite having hundreds of millions of dollars pumped into her campaign, in the end it will come to nothing. People are not wanting to live in a society that promotes political correctness, lgbt agendas, division, freedom stripping, mass immigration, abandonment of law and order etc. She had one responsibility as VP as the ‘border czar’ and failed at keeping America safe. She picked a far left loon like Tim Walz to be her running mate, someone that got trounced by the very smart GOP pick JD Vance during their debate. The future of the country can be seen in the Vice Presidential picks alone, as they will be the next in line to the top job, and the ideological paths could not be any different. People are sick of seeing America fighting endless wars that end up bankrupting the country and losing many lives. They are sick of globalist interests taking control, and politicians happy to accept and promote a destruction of sovereignty. They are sick of seeing an erosion of Western values, a denigration of history, and degeneracy taking over the streets. At the end of the day Americans need to ask themselves ‘are you better off now than you were 4 years ago’? With inflation rising, grocery prices rising, housing costs rising, immigration rising, and the American dream fading.
Like Donald Trump had always said, he had “done more in 47 months than Joe Biden had done in 47 years”. Despite Kamala Harris portraying herself as a new fresh candidate, when asked what she would do differently to Joe Biden, she replied “I can’t think of a thing”. She was part of all the decisions of the Joe Biden administration, and the candidate for change this cycle is Donald Trump. As professor Allan J. Lichtman said of Trump 8 years ago “we have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860”. Abraham Lincoln is considered to be one of the greatest leaders of all time and likewise Donald Trump can be if you put your faith in him. The time is now to once again “Make America Safe Again”, “Make America Work Again”, “Make America Healthy Again”, “Make America Strong Again” and “Make America Great Again”.
Damien Ferri
Senior Editor @ The Unshackled
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