The Countdown To The Most Important U.S. Election Of Our Lifetime Part 1 (Pre Election Analysis & Predictions)


Damien Ferri's Prediction Of The 2016 U.S. Electoral College Map

With only days to go until we finally witness who the American people have chosen to govern for the next four years, we have two very distinct visions for the future of not only the United States but the world. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have put their case forward on why they should be elected president, and it is time now that the people decide on their fate, and that of the nation. The 2016 race for the White House has been the most unpredictable and controversial ever documented. We have seen two presidential candidates that have been polar opposites in regards to their style, policy direction, and vision. Thus, this year has been classed as the establishment candidate vs the anti-establishment outsider, the same old wall street politician vs the fresh straight talking business man. Hillary Clinton had a very tough primary contest in which she only narrowly won against a 74 year old socialist Bernie Sanders who was receiving a great following amongst millennial voters. Donald Trump on the other hand faced sixteen other candidates, fourteen of them who were governors or senators that were very well known to the electorate. Despite the ongoing polls pointing in Clinton’s favour, distinguished professor of history at American University Allan J. Lichtman predicts a Trump victory.

The author of “The Keys To The White House” bases his theory on a thirteen key historical prediction system that has been used to calculate the winner of every election from 1860 to 1980. He has since used these thirteen keys to correctly predict the winner of the elections from 1984 to 2012. Lichtman states that “the keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House.” The keys look at things such as the economic performance of the country, whether there has been success or failure in foreign affairs, the charisma of the incumbent and challenger, the performance of the incumbent and the challenger in the primaries, the party mandate and policy direction, scandals and social unrest, and the potential impact of a third party candidate. Lichtman suggests that if six or more of these keys are proven false and to be a negative for the incumbent party that they will lose the election.

The economic record of the Obama administration has been a disaster. Annualised GDP growth is currently at 1.4% making Obama the only U.S. Chief Executive in history not to preside over even a single year with 3% GDP growth. The Labor Force Participation Rate on Obama’s watch has fallen from 65.7% to 62.8%, while the percentage of families in which no-one is employed has grown from 17.8% in 2008 to 19.7% in 2015. Real median house hold income is down 2.3% and Americans who own their own home is down 5.6%. The number of Americans below the poverty line is up 3.5%, and there has been a 39.5% rise in people on food stamps which equates to a total of 46 million people. Furthermore, the nation is nearing 20 trillion dollars of debt, and the disastrous Obamacare policy has seen a great rise in health care premiums which has hit working families hard. With regards to foreign affairs, there has been further instability in the Middle East with the creation of ISIS, and the failure from Clinton being at the helm as Secretary of State when four Americans died in Benghazi on September 11, 2012. Domestically the United States continues to have a major problem with illegal immigration which has led to a rise in crime, drug importation, and welfare dependency. These issues have caused social unrest amongst many Americans that feel the Democratic Party has no clear policy direction going forward and has failed on their mandate.

An important factor to look at in predicting exactly what the American people may do come election day is to go back and track the performance of the two candidates in their primary contests. Hillary Clinton struggled to fend off one challenger whereas Donald Trump overcame sixteen other high profile candidates. During the primary’s there was a lot of speculation that the Republicans would have a contested convention. Not only did this fail to be the case but Donald Trump was selected as the party nominee before Hillary. Not only do we see a difference in the competition that each competitor was up against but Trump got the highest amount of votes ever in a Republican primary. He received 13.3 million votes beating the record of George W Bush, and when considering the fact that he faced 16 other candidates he could of easily won a far greater amount. One must not only look at the 37 state win that Trump was able to muster but see the momentum he has had in generating record crowds to his rallies. His message has appealed to many different segments of the community as people have seen a politically correct culture creep in to society that has pandered to minority groups, restricted free speech, and brought Marxist thought to enter into the mainstream. He has won over many working class Democrat supporters that have had enough of the failures and false promises of the last eight years. He has drawn in independents and many voters that have never voted before to finally cast their vote for the first time. The wave of populism not only in the United States but worldwide suggests that people are sick and tired of politicians that only look after themselves rather than the people. Despite the media and the Washington elite doing everything they can to take him down, people are seeing the charisma, strength, and leadership that has not been seen since the great conservative Ronald Reagan.

Clinton on the other hand is one of the most flawed nominees in history as she battles to fight off suggestions that she is corrupt, a liar, and a power-hungry person that would do anything to be in power. The scandals such as the 30,000 missing emails and many other Wikileaks have proven all these suggestions to be true. The emails have shown that the Democrats vilify their own core support base by labelling Latino’s as “needy”, Blacks and Muslims as “never do wells”, and Catholicism as “an amazing bastardisation of the faith” and having “severely backwards gender relations.” Not only is she faced with all these scandals but the people have seen the double standard she has by playing the gender card in calling Trump “sexist” and that he “abuses women”. In fact as Trump mentioned “Bill Clinton was abusive to women and Hillary Clinton attacked those same women and attacked them viciously”. All of the sexual assault claims made against Trump have been proven false but one couldn’t forget the Monica Lewinsky affair, and Hillary whilst an attorney in 1975 defending a rapist that ruined the life of a 12 year old girl, furthermore blaming the girl for the rape and laughing at the thought of getting the rapist off. She has also supported partial birth abortion which would make it legal for a child to be killed up to the minute that the woman was due to give birth. She has proposed to accept 65,000 Syrian refugees into the country, and believes in globalised open borders as she said “my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere”. She has also created a fear that the relationship between the United States and Russia could plummet and possibly ignite world war three as she has indicated that she wants to remove Bashar Al Assad from power in Syria. The amount of baggage the Clinton campaign has is extreme and with all of the scandals, character flaws, policy failures, plus the effect third party candidates such as Libertarian Gary Johnston and others have, will impact the incumbent party in a negative way paving for a great shift on the electoral college map.

We have all heard in the media about the opinion polls that have Clinton way ahead of Trump and looking at a landslide victory but how accurate are they? One has to look back at the 1980 election where Reagan was down 6% points only weeks from polling day but then clawed back and won in a surprise landslide. This election has much the same feel and resemblance of the 1980 election as Trump like Reagan was an anti-establishment candidate that was hated in the media and even within his own party. Although this was the case they were able to muster support amongst hard working Americans, many that were Independent and Democratic voters, and have record high voter turnout due to the charisma and populist overtones that was essentially campaigning on the theme of “Making America Great Again.” Reagan is now described as one of the greatest U.S. Presidents in history and is a hero to conservatives, so Trump very well could follow in his footsteps and prove his critics wrong. The electoral map attached is a prediction and indication of what I believe may happen taken into account state by state analysis, trends, and momentum amongst different groups in the community.

There are many states on the map that are dark red and are considered safe for the Republicans: (Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming) in the far west, (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri) in the mid-west, (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia) in the south. The states that are dark blue are considered safe for the Democrats: (Hawaii, California) in the far west, (Illinois) in the mid-west, (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, Maryland) in the north east, and Washington D.C. This is a total of 32 states plus Washington D.C. which are almost certain to vote a certain way unless something takes place in a state that makes it go through a dramatic change. This leaves only 18 states remaining, 8 which are likely to vote a certain way and 10 that are on a knife edge.

The states that have a lighter shade of red are likely to be won by the Republicans but are by no means safe. In Nevada Trump is up by as much as 6% points and should easily win that state which has in recent times leaned Democrat. Utah is normally a very safe Republican state but an Independent candidate Evan McMullin aims to cause an upset there. Although this is a three-way contest Trump should still be able to get over the line. Arizona has Trump ahead by 8% points which is a great result considering Arizona was tipped to potentially swing to the Democrats. Trump’s strong policy on illegal immigration and building the wall has resonated with the public there. Iowa voted for Obama the last two elections but this time it has Trump ahead by 3% points. It has a high evangelical Christian community there and Trump has always managed to pull in big crowds. Indiana which voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012 this year will remain in Republican hands. Trump is up by 11% points, and his vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence is the current governor there. Ohio and Pennsylvania both voted for the Democrats in the past two elections, but this time it is set to change. Trump’s appeal to working class voters has made a huge impact. No other candidate since Ronald Reagan has been able to appeal to these voters, many whom have been voting Democrat all their life but are finally wanting change. Hillary Clinton scared many working-class voters by saying “We are going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.” Ohio has Trump up 3% points and he has put lots of resources into the state. Pennsylvania has been a Democrat state since 1988 and the polls are on a knife edge. For the first time in history many people in the Amish community has come out in droves to support Donald Trump. This is a rare occasion that proves the momentum and the restlessness in the community seeking a change is widespread and doesn’t only affect a couple of states. Both candidates are tied but Trump continues to pull over 30,000 people to his rallies and is clearly the candidate generating excitement and high voter turnout. In Florida, a state that was considered to be on a knife edge has emerged over time to be falling into Trump’s hands. Florida has one of the highest electoral college votes and is a state that both parties put a lot of resources into. Trump has been up 4% points in the sunshine state and continues to gain as Hillary continues to be effected by the Wikileaks scandals. Trump looks set to pick up the 2nd District of Maine but overall the majority of the electoral votes are leaning Democrat.

The states that have a pale coloured red are currently leaning Republican but it is within the margin of error and ultimately could go either way. New Mexico has a high Latino population which has grown in recent years. Many remain opposed to Donald Trump’s strong stance on illegal immigration and building the wall between the United States and Mexico. There is still a big conservative community there and recent polls have both candidates tied. This seemed virtually impossible months ago, and due to the momentum Trump has he may have a surprise victory in the state. Colorado likewise had Clinton with a huge lead months ago but polls have narrowed to either pointing to a tie or leaning slightly to the Republicans. Virginia which has historically been a red state looks to return to the Republicans although polls are very tight. New Hampshire looks set to turn red for the first time since 2000, and the mid-west states of Wisconsin and Michigan will be a tight race. These states have a lot of registered Democrats coming out for Trump similarly as they did for Reagan back in the 1980’s. They have a high percentage of working-class families and Trump’s message on trade and bringing jobs back to the United States has resonated so well that he may have a good chance in taking those states. The states that are coloured in a light shade of blue are likely to vote Democrat. Washington and Oregon both traditionally blue states have lost some ground to the Republicans but are most likely to stay with the Clinton camp. Maine and Minnesota are coloured in a pale shade of blue because although Clinton is winning in the two states, her lead is only within the margin of error and come election day it could go down to the wire.

The analysis provided may give an indication as to what the result may be on election day but with this being the most unpredictable campaign in recent history anything could happen. Professor Allan J. Lichtman predicts Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States by using the thirteen keys theory that has enabled him to correctly predict each president since 1980. By examining how this system works you can see the pattern in the political system and how that turns to how a population of a country may vote come election time. This election has been between two very different candidates. A Washington insider that has been in the game for decades and that was seen to be for many years the nominee in waiting, and a successful business man with no political experience that has made an impact on the political system regardless of the election result. Hillary Clinton came into this election as a very scripted candidate that followed the same old procedures that have been going on for years. This was her main problem as people were starting to get fed up with the old political system that was proving to not work for them. Donald Trump has been able to do something that was thought to be impossible, that is be a politically incorrect candidate that says what he thinks regardless of the consequences. This has appealed to many in the community including voters that normally vote Democrat such as the Blacks and Latinos, Catholics, and working-class people. The reason this is the case is simple, they don’t want their vote taken for granted. Their lives haven’t improved all these years that they have followed the same voting pattern and are determined to make a change in order to better themselves. As Trump has said many times “what have they got to lose” when people are losing their jobs, their rights, and their country.

Many see Clinton as someone that will try to take away their 2nd Amendment rights as she has advocated gun control, and will strip away their 1st Amendment rights in regards to the freedom of speech that she continues to attack by labeling people as bigots, racists, sexists etc when they don’t hold the same views as her. Many Catholics are put off by her strong pro-choice position on abortion that advocates a woman can terminate up to the minute of a child being born. Many in the community are sick of seeing immigrants come into the country only to see the welfare system overload and taxes soar. People are sick of seeing the amount of debt skyrocket to nearly 20 trillion dollars whilst unemployment rises and so does the cost of living. People are sick of the ongoing terrorist threats posed by ISIS and acknowledge the government not doing enough to protect its citizens. People are sick of seeing companies move overseas and with that their jobs, and seeing the negative effect free trade agreements have had on the country. People are sick of the political correctness that has resulted to common core being taught in schools, confusion in public toilets, and gay marriage being forced onto the population to appease a minority of people. People are sick of the constant scandals plagued by the Clinton campaign, and elites that have shown to have a total disregard of the people that have hired them to serve. People are sick of liberals dividing society into race, religion, gender, and class, and want a United States to operate in bringing people together rather than separating them by labels. People do not want open borders and a “hemispheric” new world order that promotes globalisation and aims to create a one world government. People are sick of politicians lying, being bought, and not serving the people for the country’s best interest.

The American people want a strong leader that will create jobs and boost the economy. A leader that will have strong borders and ensure illegal immigrants don’t come into the country. A leader that protects the 2nd Amendment, the right to free speech, and religious freedoms. One that will destroy ISIS, and re-negotiate trade deals that will benefit the country. One that will care about the people of the nation and that will always put them first by serving with honour and integrity. The decision could not be any clearer. Even Jill Stein that is a Green candidate of the left said “under Hillary Clinton, we could slide into nuclear war very quickly from her declared policy in Syria. On the issue of war and nuclear weapons, and the potential for nuclear war, it’s actually Hillary’s policies which are much scarier than Donald Trump, who does not want to go to war with Russia. He wants to seek modes of working together, which is the route that we need to follow”. Putting aside Hillary’s character flaws, her double standards in regards to her abusive husband, the Wikileaks scandals plaguing her campaign, the terrible policy decisions including the Benghazi attacks, the creation of ISIS by destabilising the middle east as secretary of state, and her eager want to serve George Soros and the rest of the elite. Despite all this, a vote for Hillary is a vote for World War Three. There could not be a better reason why you should not vote for her. In an unstable world that has led to disasters never seen before, what have you the voter got to lose? The momentum in the electorate is for change and the populist message has not only resonated in the United States but in Australia, Europe, and Asia. As professor Allan J. Lichtman says “we have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860”. Abraham Lincoln is considered to be one of the greatest leaders of all time and likewise Donald Trump can be if you put your faith in him. The time is now to “Make America Safe Again”, “Make America Work Again”, and as a past president used to say, and a future president currently says, it is time that we “Make America Great Again”.


Damien Ferri
National Deputy Leader Of The UCP Young Conservatives

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