With only days to go until we finally witness who the American people have chosen to govern for the next four years, we have two very distinct visions for the future of not only the United States but the world. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have put their case forward on why they should be elected president, and it is time now that the people decide on their fate, and that of the nation. The 2020 race for the White House has many similarities to what was on offer back in 2016. We have seen two presidential candidates that have been polar opposites in regards to their style, policy direction, and vision. We once again continue to have a match up between a straight talking non-conventional leader vs someone that has represented the corporate establishment for the last half a century of public life. Joe Biden with a little luck, ascended as the default candidate of choice after leading figures like Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Michael Bloomberg decided to pull out of the primaries and unite behind him against socialist candidate Bernie Sanders. The polls since then have consistently favoured Biden over Trump, and distinguished professor of history at American University Allan J. Lichtman predicts that 2020 will be a Biden victory.
The author of “The Keys To The White House” bases his theory on a thirteen key historical prediction system that has been used to calculate the winner of every election from 1860 to 1980. He has since used these thirteen keys to correctly predict the winner of the elections from 1984 to 2016. Lichtman states that “the keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House.” The keys look at things such as the economic performance of the country, whether there has been success or failure in foreign affairs, the charisma of the incumbent and challenger, the performance of the incumbent and the challenger in the primaries, the party mandate and policy direction, scandals and social unrest, and the potential impact of a third party candidate. Lichtman suggests that if six or more of these keys are proven false and to be a negative for the incumbent party that they will lose the election. Currently he places Trump as having seven of the thirteen keys proven false but three of these keys are definitely debatable. Firstly he suggests that Trump is not a charismatic leader, which quite frankly is a terrible assessment. Secondly he cites both short term and long term negative economic impacts to the country, but in a year like 2020 with the coronavirus behind this and not at all of the Presidents doing, it is hard to see how this could apply and cause little doubt when predicting the result of this years race.
Prior to Covid-19, the Trump administration created one of the greatest economies in living memory. During his first three years in office President Trump oversaw an annual average growth of 2.5%. Trump often highlights the rising value of US financial markets as a measure of success – in particular the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Although crashing, as markets reacted to the coronavirus, they have been remarkably resilient and they’ve now largely recovered back to near pre-pandemic levels. Real wages grew throughout Trump’s first three years in office – reaching 2.1% per annum in February 2019. In 2019, around 4.2 million fewer people were living in poverty in the US compared with the previous year. According to official data only 10.5% of the population are currently on the poverty line, and the average weekly wage has increased to the hourly rate of $29.47. In 3 years, 6.7 million new jobs were created, and in February this year Trump delivered the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years at only 3.5%. At the height of covid that figure did grow to 14.7%, but has gradually decreased back to 7.9%. With regards to foreign affairs, Trump has delivered on his promise to withdraw troops from the middle east. He has also been the leading figure behind several peace deals that in turn have made the region far more stable than it previously was. He continues to deliver on his promise of building the wall and has ensured that illegal immigrants don’t cross the border leading to a reduction of crime and welfare dependency.
An important factor to look at in predicting exactly what the American people may do come election day, is to look at the stark contrast in policy directions offered by both candidates. Donald Trump has beat the odds and achieved great results despite the mainstream media, hollywood, and corporate powers being against him. Apart from his strong record on the economy, he has made it clear that he would be tough on China and put America first. Not only would this occur via protectionist policy which has worked in keeping companies from relocating overseas, but by also boosting manufacturing and keeping Americans employed. He chose to scrap unfair trade deals that were hurting the working class and not inflict a costly globalist green new deal. Trump has fulfilled his promise in elevating conservative judges to the supreme court, with the recent announcement of Amy Coney Barrett replacing Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Giving conservatives a clear majority has been something that nobody in recent time has been able to do, and it is needed more than ever as the Democrats have made drastic changes over the last decade that have resulted in a direct attack on the family and faith. Trump has refused to panic and dramatise the current virus and has ensured peoples freedoms will not be trampled on by draconian lock down measures put in place by many left wing leaders around the world. His major achievement however is his strong stance on law and order. While many far left extremists continue to burn cities to the ground, he has stood up and not bowed down to any pressure, using the army when necessary to protect citizens. He, unlike many on the right today, has chosen to fight the culture wars and display his charisma, strength, principles, and leadership that is needed now more than ever.
Joe Biden on the other hand has continually shown how rotten the Democratic Party is. The best the Democratic Party could do was to pick a senile old man that suffers from dementia and can hardly string a sentence together. Sleepy Joe is kept hidden away in the basement due to his advisors not wanting to risk any gaffes that he is commonly prone to make. He follows the WHO globalist rhetoric on the coronavirus by spreading fear and paranoia, as-well as supporting business and freedom destroying lockdowns. He refuses to denounce far left Marxist groups such as BLM and Antifa that are behind tearing down working class neighbourhoods, as-well as killing and assaulting anyone that opposes their radical elite driven ideologies. He continues to support Planned Parenthood, and engages in virtue signalling to degenerates and minority groups. Despite choosing a running mate like Kamala Harris which was supposed to draw black voters, their records for blacks have been a disaster particularly on crime legislation. Biden even said that “if you vote Trump you ain’t black”. Biden is soft on China and has many corrupt ties via his sons dealings. Biden refuses to guarantee that he will not stack the court. If he were to win he would definitely not last in the position of president due to ailing health, and was only ever chosen to be the nominee for 2 reasons: Firstly so that he as a puppet can simply follow orders and not have a strong principled agenda like those on the fringe do, and secondly so that he could be seen as a safe candidate and once elected could hand over to Kamala Harris, someone the public despise. The amount of baggage the Biden campaign has, as-well as their disastrous policy direction will impact their party in a negative way paving for a closer than expected result on the electoral college map.
We have all heard in the media about the opinion polls that have Biden way ahead of Trump and looking at a landslide victory, but how accurate are they? One has to look back at the 1980 election where Reagan was down 6% points only weeks from polling day but then clawed back and won in a surprise landslide. Then we had the 2016 election only 4 years ago that had Donald Trump with little to no chance of winning the White House. Polls are not accurate but rather are created to boost confidence in the person they want to win. It is so it can drive people to support the ‘winner’ and at the same time demoralise the opposition. National polls that have Biden up double digits are laughable, as such an atmosphere is not being felt on the ground in the electorates. There is no doubt that real polls would indicate a very close match up between the 2 candidates. Biden has no enthusiasm on his side of politics, and although there is a big anti Trump vote, one can not solely rely on this to be elected. A tie or a Trump victory is likely, regardless of what the media may have you think. If a 269-269 tie occurs we are sure to witness the possibilities of a civil war erupt, something that will suit the agenda of the elite by further dividing the populace. Such a scenario will see President Trump returned, but due to the close result see riots like we have never seen before. The electoral map attached is a prediction and indication of what I believe may happen by taking into account state by state analysis, trends, and momentum amongst different groups in the community.
There are many states on the map that are dark red and are considered safe for the Republicans: (Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah) in the far west, (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio) in the mid-west, (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia) in the south. The states that are dark blue are considered safe for the Democrats: (Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington) in the far west, (Illinois) in the mid-west, (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, Maryland, Maine) in the north east, and Washington D.C. This is a total of 38 states plus Washington D.C. which are almost certain to vote a certain way unless something takes place in a state that makes it go through a dramatic change. This leaves only 12 states remaining, 7 which are likely to vote a certain way and 5 that are on a knife edge. In 2016 there were many more states in play but the Republicans with their massive win was able to move a lot of swing states in the safe column.
The states that have a lighter shade of red are likely to be won by the Republicans but are by no means safe. The first state that will be crucial for Donald Trumps re-election will be Florida. Despite polls in the past putting Biden ahead comfortably, there are more recent ones that suggest Donald Trump would be at worst statistically tied and at best up 4% points. Although there are some older voters that have left him due to their disappointment in how the GOP handled the coronavirus, Trump has scored inroads with the Latino community. He is at very high levels with this group as his messaging on the Democrats ties with socialist ideology, as-well as on the economy and immigration have won many over. Another state that is likely to go Republican despite much of the hype saying otherwise is North Carolina. North Carolina has always been a safe red seat and has only in more recent times become slightly more marginal. It is a state that Trump won quite comfortably in 2016 and with his strong voter base here he should have no problems carrying the state even if it is with a reduced end result to last time. Pennsylvania being the last of the red states that are leaning towards the GOP show a very tight race. The polls are very inconsistent and have ranged from a 10% margin as suggested by CNN, to more reliable numbers pointing to a virtual tie, with 1 poll even giving him a 2% point edge. Trump has fought hard in this state by staging many rallies, as the main issues that face the voters of that state such as fracking, manufacturing, and trade, continue to hurt the Democrats. Trade policies such as the TPP and NAFTA which both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton supported led to the seat changing red at the last election. Steel and mine jobs and an anti China message is resonating here and it is very likely that Trump can win this state.
The states that are coloured in a lighter shade of blue are likely to vote Democrat. Virginia was once traditionally a red seat but has been trending blue for sometime now. Due to huge demographic shifts where many from the liberal North East have moved, it has allowed this one southern state to become a comfortable blue state. Although things had previously been a bit tighter, polls have Biden up by double digits here and it looks like he will have no trouble winning the state. Hillary Clinton only narrowly won in New Hampshire by a 0.3% margin. This was a seat that the GOP in any normal year could have easily won back from the Democrats, but in this cycle it shows Trump behind by double digits, so it is likely that Biden will retain the seat and increase his vote from the 2016 result. Colorado like Virginia, although always seen as a potential swing state, has continued to trend blue in later years. The most recent poll has Biden up by 9% points, and although it may be a state that can one day be in play, it doesn’t look to be changing hands at this election. New Mexico like both Colorado and Virginia has been trending blue, and although there is a big Latino population there, they aren’t as enthusiastic for the President as the Latinos in Florida. Many dislike Trumps stance on immigration and the border wall.
The states that have a pale coloured blue are currently leaning Democrat but it is within the margin of error and ultimately could go either way. Although it may surprise some, I believe that Trump has a genuine chance at winning Nevada. It is a state that Hillary Clinton only won by 2.4% back in 2016, and one that judging by current polls show a close race. These have ranged from a high of Biden leading 6%, to Biden only leading 2% which statistically is tied. When you have a look at the dynamics of this seat, it has a strong Latino presence, a group that Trump has been gaining ground on. It is also important to note that many Latinos during the primaries supported Bernie Sanders and felt betrayed at the end result of Biden being the victor. This could mean that they could either stage a protest vote for the other populist candidate in Trump, or stay at home and decrease the vote share that the Democrats would normally receive. Arizona is a state to watch and is literally on a knife edge. Trump won the state by 4% points in 2016, but polls this time round indicate a toss up in which a 1% margin either way could make the difference. The last 3 states to focus on are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These rustbelt states are slightly leaning towards Biden, but is a more closer race than the mainstream media is letting out. The latest poll numbers show Biden up around 4% in Minnesota, anywhere between a tie and 17% in Wisconsin, and around 8% in Michigan. I believe these polls are very wrong and doesn’t reflect the mood of what is actually happening on the ground of these states. Trump has been attracting thousands to his rallies as he hammers home the message of fair trade deals, a strong and open economy, a tough stance on China, support for fracking, steel, and mining, and opposition to the green new deal. He also is attracting people with his tough law and order approach, that aims to stop civil unrest in many of the major cities of these states. Communist groups like Black Lives Matter & Antifa have burnt down businesses, torn down monuments, and caused fear in the communities. Events like this, despite the media’s efforts in backing such movements, cause a backlash within working class neighbourhoods and ensure that come election time their voice will be heard. These 3 states are not states that Trump has to win in order to retain the White House, as he could easily scrape in by carrying Florida, North Carolina, & Pennsylvania. This would be a tied result which would eventually give Trump the win, although if he carried Arizona it would get him by with an outright majority of college votes. Biden however must win all 3 states as he is behind and likely to lose the other states that Trump is currently leading in. It is very difficult to predict the likely outcome, but one things for certain is that it will be very close in the 5 states that I have highlighted pale blue on the electoral college map. Below is a picture of an alternate electoral college that I believe is in the realms of possibilities, if a tie shown in the main image doesn’t occur. It is my belief that it will be either very close or another resounding victory for Trump, similar to 2016 but perhaps with an extra couple of states like Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
The analysis provided may give an indication as to what the result may be on election day, but with this being the most unpredictable campaign in recent history anything could happen. Professor Allan J. Lichtman predicts Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States by using the thirteen keys theory that has enabled him to correctly predict each president since 1980. I think that due to the current climate though, that if there was any year in which the polls and Lichtman’s assessment could be wrong, it is this one. Although the mainstream media like to paint Donald Trump’s scepticism of the coronavirus to be unpopular, in reality this is far from the truth and the anti lockdown and pro freedom movement is widespread. Although casualties have resulted from the virus, it should not be used as a political opportunity for the left to steal away the rights of people, and destroy the economy which leaves people in far worse pain long term. Donald Trump has caught the virus and recovered quite swiftly from it, as-well as promised the American people he will make the drugs he used accessible and free to all. He has chosen to risk his life by going out and speaking at rallies, rather than locking himself in a basement.
If there is one thing that will greatly hinder Biden, it is the fact he has not been meeting large masses of voters and doing grassroots campaigning, but has chosen to instead focus on media advertising alone. The Hunter Biden business dealings as-well as the pornographic and drug scandals he is engulfed in doesn’t help the Democrats either. The fact that he is an establishment globalist puppet, that will either bend to the far-left socialists of the party or proceed with a Neo-liberal agenda, doesn’t help the country nor does it represent what the people want. This 2 sides of the same coin approach has failed and a 3rd option that preaches a socially conservative nationalist agenda is essential.
Many see Biden as someone that will not even be able to last a whole term, considering the fact he is old and in bad health. In many ways the very reason why the Democrats chose Biden to front the ticket was that he gave a false sense of stability and normalcy, when in reality the intention was that the torch was always going to be passed to Kamala Harris in the long run. The majority of Americans hate Kamala, which is why they gave her the VP slot rather than making it obvious of their intention they have of her. She is a fake Neo-liberal hollywood shill of the worst kind, that holds no real convictions but catering to her elite handlers that put her there by sleeping her way to the top job. Many in the black community see through her lies, and know her record in sending blacks to prison as an attorney isn’t a good one. They are both very pro choice unlike the most pro life president America has ever seen. Expect to see more political correctness madness, lgbt agendas, race baiting, freedom stripping, green agendas, mass immigration, and abandonment of law and order.
When Democrats are in charge you get situations like in (CHAZ) Portland, where far left communists take over blocks of a city and border it off as a separate entity, even driving the police force away. Marxists pull down monuments, and history is destroyed in plain sight, and the Democrats will do nothing as they are scared to be called racist. They will enact globalist trade deals that push jobs and companies overseas, and be soft on China at a time where we can least afford to. They will continue fighting unnecessary wars and undermine western civilisation every chance they get.
The American people want a strong leader that will create jobs and boost the economy, something that the current President had done and now must be entrusted to do once again. A leader that will not accept the globalist narrative on the coronavirus and pursue draconian measures against his people. A leader that is pro life and anti political correctness. A leader that believes in the 2nd amendment and will keep the country safe against the far left extremists that are fixated on burning it to the ground. A leader that will stand up to China and put America first. People are sick of wall street sell outs that are backed by hollywood and the media. A candidate like Joe Biden that never gets tough interviews but instead always goes unchallenged. A person that will stack the courts and bring ongoing degeneracy and regressive change to society. A person that won’t be able to serve a full term, and is only there to give Kamala Harris the top job because they know the American people won’t. Like Donald Trump has always said, he has “done more in 47 months than Joe Biden has done in 47 years”. As professor Allan J. Lichtman said of Trump 4 years ago “we have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860”. Abraham Lincoln is considered to be one of the greatest leaders of all time and likewise Donald Trump can be if you put your faith in him. The time is now to once again “Make America Safe Again”, “Make America Work Again”, and as a past president used to say, and what the current president always says, it is time that we “Make America Great Again”.
Senior Editor @ The Unshackled