The Countdown To The Most Important U.S. Election Of Our Lifetime Part 2 (Post Election Analysis & Results)
Only days after we witnessed the most shocking election result in generations, the American people have chosen Donald Trump to govern for the next four years. We had two very distinct visions for the future of not only the United States but the world. Both candidates did everything they possibly could to convince voters that they were the right choice for commander-in chief. There were many pros and cons that people saw in both of the candidates but in the end the voters demanded a dramatic change. The people preferred to vote for a candidate that had little political experience but a successful business career rather than a political insider that had been plagued with scandals throughout her career. People were very disappointed with the way the country had performed under the Democrats over the last 8 years and needed something new, that would once again bring back hope and achieve the results that would get the country back on the right track. Despite all of the polls pointing to a Clinton victory, distinguished professor of history at American University Allan J. Lichtman predicted a Trump victory and was once again accurate in his prediction.
In (Part 1) of the article “The Countdown To The Most Important U.S. Election Of Our Lifetime”, it outlined the theory of the thirteen key historical prediction system. Professor Allan J. Lichtman wrote about this in his book “The Keys To The White House”, and based this system on being able to calculate the winner of every election from 1860 to 1980. He had since used these thirteen keys to correctly predict the winner of every election from 1984 to 2012. As we have seen by these election results, Lichtman was able to once again prove how accurate his predictions were. But why did the media fail in predicting the right result? How did the polls get it so wrong? There are two answers to this. The first is that it had proved how out of touch the mainstream media was in under-estimating the discontent that the American people had with their current politicians and the policy direction of the country. Instead of seeking the views of hard working families and rural voters, the elite continued to focus on the inner city social justice warriors that form a loud but minority voice. These people seem to be most concerned about climate change, political correctness, and a gender neutral society that creates confusion as to who uses the male and female restrooms. As soon as politicians ponder to minority groups and focus on nonsense fringe issues, the majority of hard working Americans will notice and will react negatively as these issues don’t affect them. Secondly many in the media knew the discontent in the country but chose not to report on it, that way it would undermine Trump, and discourage his supporters in coming out to vote for him.
Many people had predicted a massive stock market crash in the wake of Donald Trump winning the presidency. Although there were some early signs of concern, investors think the outlook for the American economy remains positive. U.S. bond yields have risen strongly to 1.948% up 0.08 percentage points. The Dow Jones also rose 191 points to reach 18,780, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes also climbed. According to economists at the Commonwealth Bank, a Donald Trump presidency is likely to lift global economic growth which will likely result in improved commodity prices worldwide. The new administration’s policies are also likely to boost equity markets. Chief Economist Michael Blythe said “this will be stimulatory for the U.S. economy as personal and corporate taxes are cut”, which is likely to drive capital inflows into the U.S. economy and push the U.S. dollar higher. One thing that Donald Trump needs to focus on is dramatically reducing the 20 trillion dollars of debt, as the Treasury Debt shows Obama has accumulated more debt than all the other presidents in history combined. According to the “Bureau of Labor Statistics” the U.S. has had its lowest labor participation rate since the 1970’s resulting in 95 million Americans out of the labor force. According to the “Census Bureau” 43 million people in the U.S. live in poverty, and the country is currently facing the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years. If Donald Trump repeals Obamacare which has seen a rise in health care premiums, reduces taxes abroad, and seeks to tackle the cost of living pressures that hard working Americans face he will be able to show how well he can lead the nation at a time of great hardship.
Donald Trump delivered his victory speech at 2:49am on Wednesday the 9th of November 2016. He delivered a speech that was very presidential and humble as he said “I have just received a call from Secretary Clinton. She congratulated us – it’s about ‘us’ – on our victory and I congratulated her and her family on a very hard-fought campaign.” He also showed that it was the Democrats that were dividing society rather than him by saying “for those who have chosen not to support me in the past – of which there were a few people – I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help, so that we can work together and unify our great country.” Trump also proved his campaign didn’t target minority groups as the left would have you believe. He said that this was an “incredible and great movement made up of millions of hard-working men and women who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their families. A movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds and beliefs who want and expect our government to serve the people, and serve the people it will.” Donald Trump has made one of the biggest ever impacts on the political scene. The new record of 13.3 million votes that he achieved during the Republican Primaries, the tens of thousands that would come see him at his rallies, and his crushing landslide victory against Hillary Clinton is proof of that. If given the opportunity by his Republican colleagues, he will be able to carry out his mandate that will change America and quite possibly turn him into a conservative hero like the great Ronald Reagan.
Hillary Clinton had been expected to give her concession speech at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City during the night. Instead, John Podesta, her campaign manager, said there would be no announcement until the morning. He told the crowd at around 2am that “I know we’ve been here a long time and I know it’s been a long night and I know it’s been a long campaign. But I know we can wait a little longer, we will have more to say tomorrow.” Within the hour, Clinton called Trump to concede her defeat. Democrat supporters couldn’t believe what had happened. Although Podesta tried to encourage people to be optimistic, deep down everyone knew that had lost, and that it was a landslide. Clinton delivered her concession speech at 10:30am on Wednesday the 9th of November 2016. She told her supporters, “I know we have still not shattered that highest and hardest glass ceiling, but someday someone will – and hopefully sooner than we might think right now.” The problem with what she said is that she didn’t learn from her defeat whatsoever. Clinton and the left continue to try to divide and segregate people into minority groups so that they can then come in and act like a saviour to the groups survival. There was further evidence of this when she said, “to all the women, and especially young women, who put their faith in this campaign and in me: I want you to know that nothing has made me prouder than to be your champion. To all the little girls who are watching this, never doubt that you are valuable and powerful and deserving of every chance and opportunity in the world to pursue and achieve your own dreams.” Once again Clinton played the gender card so that she could continue to act like the victim that had been dealt a big blow by the bully in the school yard. Even in defeat the Democrats haven’t understood that Americans are sick of identity politics and political correctness that has been a driving force by the radical left, and instead want unity and good governance to once again take over in order to make the country great again.
On election night social media really showed each sides sentiment, as you had conservatives posting up many memes on Facebook to show their delight with the vote vs the left wing social justice warriors on Twitter having panic attacks and violent outbursts. For the true believers the polls were always going to be incorrect as they knew that the feeling on the ground was the true poll indicator as to the feeling of the country. According to many, Donald Trump’s support amongst minority groups was supposed to be dismal. If you look at the exit polls though it shows he performed better than Romney among Blacks, Latinos and Asian Americans, making it more difficult to claim that racial resentment was the dominant factor explaining Trump’s support nationally. Trump received 8% of the Black vote, 29% of the Latino and Asian American vote, and 58% of the White vote. He won more independent voters than Hillary, plus 9% of Democrat voters that helped him around the rust belt states. It also shows he polled 62% among rural voters and edged out Clinton in the suburbs but lost out in the cities with only 35%. Trump’s result was not only an embarrassment for the Democrats but also for the elite in the Republican Party that undermined him. It has also shown that Trump accomplished something that neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney could, which shows how successful he was as a candidate. Trump was not only able to take traditional red states but was successful at winning most swing states and even some blue states that were never expected to turn red. In (Part 1) of this article I posted a map which predicted how states may vote on Election Day. The map I have attached on this article (Part 2) is the final results, and as you can see my original prediction was fairly accurate with only a few minor errors which is to be expected. Trump has turned the Electoral College right around with these results.
The 32 safe states that I identified on the map all went the way I had predicted. For the Republican Party these are: (Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming) in the far west, (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri) in the mid-west, (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia) in the south. For the Democrats these are: (Hawaii, California) in the far west, (Illinois) in the mid-west, (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, Maryland) in the north east, and Washington D.C. This leaved only 18 states remaining, 8 which I thought would likely go a certain way, and 10 that were on a knife edge and could go either way.
The states that originally had a lighter shade of red, I believed the Republicans were likely to win but weren’t completely safe. In Utah Trump won by a landslide with 46.3% in a three way race with Hillary Clinton picking up 27.7% and Independent Evan McMullin 20.9%. In Arizona Trump’s hard-line policies against illegal immigration, and building the wall helped him beat Clinton 49.5% to 45.4%. Iowa had voted for Obama the last two elections but this time Trump defeated Clinton by a great margin of 51.8% to 42.4%. Iowa has a high population of Evangelical Christians and Trump won this group by over 80% nationally according to the exit polls. Indiana had previously been a swing state but Trump, along with local Vice President Mike Pence scored a landslide victory here of 57.2% to 37.9%. Ohio, also a swing state and must win for Trump turned red with a big victory of 52.1% to 43.5%. Pennsylvania turned red for the first time since 1988 with Trump winning 48.8% to 47.6%. Trump had shown Reagan-esque qualities in being able to win over states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio that was home to working-class blue collar voters, many whom were registered Democrats but came in droves to support him. Many in the Amish community voted for the first time, in order to protect their religious freedom as they saw the threats a Hillary Clinton presidency posed. In Florida many thought Trump would have a hard time amongst Latino’s due to his tough policy on illegal immigration but he won the sunshine state 49.1% to 47.8%. Trump was also able to take the 2nd District of Maine. One state that I had predicted wrong was Nevada where Clinton beat Trump 47.9% to 45.5%. Trump won in most counties but lost heavily in the city of Las Vegas. A changing demographic could be attributed to this, but without the 3.3% the Libertarian Gary Johnson received Trump could of possibly just got over the line. The states that originally had a light shade of blue gave Clinton big wins in both Washington and Oregon. In Washington Clinton won 55.0% to 37.8%, and in Oregon she won 51.7% to 41.1%.
The states that had a pale red or blue colour on the original map were leaning a certain way but it was within the margin of error. I had predicted Trump to have a chance in winning states like New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire but instead Clinton defeated him. In New Mexico there were many polls that showed both Trump and Clinton tied but the big factor was Libertarian local Gary Johnson which secured 9.3% of the vote. If Johnson hadn’t had the impact he had, then Trump could have got over the line as he lost to Clinton 48.3% to 40.0%. In Colorado it was a tight contest with Clinton edging out Trump 47.3% to 44.4%, with Johnson attracting 5.0%. Virginia once was a safe red state but a big demographic shift turned it into a swing state where Clinton defeated Trump 49.9% to 45.0%. New Hampshire was seen as a very strong state for Trump as there were many polls which had him in a healthy lead there. The Republicans hadn’t won New Hampshire since the year 2000 under George W Bush and the numbers were so tight that it took nearly a week after the election to get a result. Clinton in the end edged out Trump with a tight 47.6% to 47.2% victory. All these states in the circumstances given had close results. In the mid-west though there was a very different outcome with Trump winning huge upsets in Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin hadn’t voted for a Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 but Trump was able to win 47.9% to 46.9%. Michigan hadn’t voted Republican since 1988 but Trump beat Clinton 47.6% to 47.3%. Minnesota was another very tight race where Clinton only narrowly won 46.9% to 45.4%. This was a state that had been held by the Democrats since 1972 and shows how much of an impact Trump made in the rust belt. Donald Trump was able to do what John McCain, Mitt Romney, George Bush, and Bob Dole couldn’t do, and that was connect with blue collar working-class people. When Hillary famously said “We are going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business,” working-class people started to realise that she didn’t care about them and their job security, but instead preferred to pander to the left wing environmentalists therefore disregarding her traditional support base. When politicians take their voters for granted, eventually people will push themselves to make a change, and Donald Trump’s protectionist overtones on bringing jobs back to America was what they needed to hear.
Originally I had predicted a Trump/Pence victory of 343-195 Electoral College votes, with the final result ending up as 306-232. Most of the states were correctly predicted by using polls, historical data, state by state analysis, and on the ground feeling in the electorate. There were a few states that had shifted the other way, but all these states had very tight races and were within the margin of error. Donald Trump also beat Hillary Clinton in the popular vote 62.9 million to 62.2 million although there has been much speculation by the left that it wasn’t the case. Not only did he achieve this, but according to Greg Phillips of the VoteFraud.org organisation, he did it whilst voter fraud was widespread. He said that he has “verified more than three million votes cast by non-citizens.” Of these votes one would have to be optimistic that Trump received any of them. Despite all the factors that were weighed heavily against him, Trump has succeeded in already improving relations with countries that have been hostile to the United States. Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to restore relations with the U.S. when he said that he is keen on “building a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington, based on principles of equality, mutual respect and each others positions, meets the interests of the peoples of our countries and of the entire international community.” This seems to be the greatest improvement in decades, and is a big development after the hostility between Russia and the Obama administration. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte also said that he “wishes President-elect Trump success in the next four years as Chief Executive and commander-in chief of the U.S. military, and looks forward to working with the incoming administration for enhanced Philippines-U.S. relations anchored on mutual respect, mutual benefit and shared commitment to democratic ideals and the rule of law.” Trump has been able to achieve a huge turnaround from countries once hostile towards the U.S. now wanting to improve relations.
If Hillary Clinton had got into power we would be in a very different situation. Relations with Russia would have gotten worse, and potentially world war 3 would have started due to Clinton’s obsession with removing Bashar Al Assad from power in Syria. ISIS would continue to grow and spread throughout the Middle East without a solution of eliminating them. Another 65,000 Syrian refugee’s would come onto American soil and further put pressure on the welfare system. Borders would be wide open with illegal immigration continuing to come into the United States. Common Core would be taught in schools, which is an ideological Marxist run program designed to brainwash and sexualise young students. Abortion law would be changed so that a woman would be able to terminate her child’s life up to the minute of the birth. Americans 2nd Amendment rights would be stripped down and eventually removed. Americans 1st Amendment rights in regards to free speech would be limited and attacked as political correctness continues to sweep in. The country’s debt would continue to skyrocket, and unemployment would rise due to job losses faced when companies continue moving to other countries. Ongoing scandals and corruption would become the norm which would have undermined her leadership. Americans sent a clear message to the establishment, that is that they are sick and tired of not being heard while they are struggling to survive paycheck to paycheck. When the working-class moved the way that it did it proved that it was no longer taken for granted, as the people saw the threats and needed the right solutions that would protect their rights, jobs and family.
Professor Allan J. Lichtman that successfully predicted all these election victories has come up recently with a new prediction. He now believes that Donald Trump could possibly get impeached before the end of his first term. “They don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable.” Although Lichtman stated this as a gut feeling rather than having anything to do with the thirteen keys, there still could be a chance that an event could take place in removing Trump from office. Guardian journalist Monisha Rajesh got fired from her job after saying on twitter “it’s about time for a presidential assassination.” Impeachment may not happen but an assassination attempt could play a part, as ongoing protests by left wing extremists terrorise the streets. George Soros has been mobalising rent-a-crowds to cause havoc in many major cities with advertisements on Craigslist for people to get paid to protest. Cars have been smashed, American flags burnt, and one woman even defecated on a trump sign in front of a large crowd all in the name of activism. The so called tolerant left are just proving why the majority of Americans wanted Trump as their president. The left have shown their communist colours because they haven’t accepted the result of a democratic election due to the fact that they lost. Clinton chased these minority voters while she left the working and middle class Americans high and dry. Worldwide the left have been leaving their traditional base to instead side with these Marxist radicals. The results of this action has proven that class no longer plays a part in party politics. If Donald Trump is to stay true to his principles and ignores these loud minority groups, the mainstream media, and establishment that will continue to attack him, he can potentially be the next Lincoln and Reagan. With all of the problems at hand, the people need a leader that will rise up to the task and tackle the economic, social, and national problems the nation faces. In order to succeed Trump needs to ensure that he is able to “Make America Safe Again”, “Make America Work Again”, and overall “Make America Great Again.”
Damien Ferri
National Deputy Leader Of The UCP Young Conservatives
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