Can Trump Win with Investigations, a Recession, and no Wall in 2020?

We’ve seen Donald Trump pulling several rabbits out of his hat since he started running for president. One of the strongest points in his favour was the undeniably strong economy he helped create, along with some over-all popular foreign policy moves. The positive economic outlook, however, may be nearing an end.

The US yield curve has just inverted, meaning interest rates for short-term bonds is now higher than long-term bonds. This measure has been a reliable indicator of a recession in the past, and it may be that in 2019 the US is headed for a recession in earnings or even an economic recession.

Donald Trump has also made little gain in his bid for a border wall. The Democrats are offering $3.5 billion dollars less than Trump wants to build a border wall, and his initial assertion that Mexico would be paying for it has all but faded away. Trump supporters seemed comfortable with paying for the wall themselves as long as it got built, but more and more it seems like it may not happen. His most recent suggestion to have the military build the wall seems an unlikely fix as well.

The third force in Donald Trump’s opposition is the incoming democratic house of representatives who seem more than willing to weaponize their investigatory and subpoena powers against the president. This could mean a publishing of Trump’s tax returns, multiple investigations into Trump’s business dealings, investigations into cabinet members, and a slew of other unflattering actions against the administration.

With all these factors in mind, do you think Donald Trump can win in 2020?

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photo credit: Gage Skidmore Donald Trump via photopin (license)

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