Attempts to drive out Muslims would result in considerable resistance not only from Muslims but from a significant proportion of the non-Muslim population. It would be politically “interesting times”.

The view that Muslim countries are incapable of achieving social and political progress until they abandon or greatly dilute their religion is a rather grim prognosis.

My feeling is that the Sunnis have now experienced both “secular” tyranny and the calliphate and are now more ready for a bit of liberty. That will not extend to drawing Mohammed cartoons, burning the Koran or wearing bikinis. However, it will allow for accountable government and freedom to criticize and vote out politicians. We already have this in Iraq as a result of Bush’s decision to liberate that country from the Baath Party. We can also expect to see the position of women change as the economies develop and they are drawn into the workforce.

How things develop in Syria and Iraq will be critical. This means not just militarily defeating Daesh but also helping to facilitate accountable government and economic development.

Unlike the “clash of civilization” view, I look forward to western (ie modern) values and societies becoming global over the course of the next century. We in the west should do everything we can to facilitate this rather than washing our hands of the world and pulling up the drawbridge. I am thinking of such things as Wall Street seriously ramping up capital exports to the more backward regions, more Bill Gates style philanthropy and more government help to countries attempting to shake off tyranny and kleptocracy.